When Andrew Lloyd Webber's musical masterpiece "The Phantom of the Opera" kicks off on Saturday night, it may be the biggest - but will also probably be the last big - bet the Shanghai Grand Theater makes in the guessing game of what Broadway musical to import next.

The gamble on "Phantom" is a 50-million-yuan (US$6 million) wager that involves a three-month exclusive occupation of the main theater for the show and the drilling of more than 90 holes in the ceiling to install a 500-kilogram chandelier. During the most breathtaking scene in the musical, the chandelier will fall above the heads of the audience onto the stage.

To break even on its bet, the Shanghai Grand Theater needs to sell nearly 180,000 tickets for the total 96 performances, which means it has to attract more than 1 percent of Shanghai's population.

The organizers are tense but optimistic. Their courage and confidence may derive from the past several hit shows they have put on.

As the first to begin importing Western musicals, the Shanghai Grand Theater staged 21 performances of "Les Miserables" in 2002. This appetizer to test the musical tastes of Shanghai theatergoers cost the organizers 10 million yuan.

Even the unfortunate timing of the staging of "Cats" the following year - it coincided with the SARS outbreak - still didn't stop the theater making a profit of three million yuan. Then "The Sound of Music" last spring returned a profit of nearly five million yuan.

The sizes of the audiences for the three musicals was 100 percent of total capacity, 80 percent and 99 percent respectively. The improving level of income has led the Shanghai Grand Theater into more grand spending spree on another blockbuster musical.

"We have kind of nurtured a market for musicals in Shanghai," says Qian Shijin, deputy manager of Shanghai Grand Theater, proudly. "Musical is a baby of the market economy. As one of China's most commercially minded cities, Shanghai's audiences love these trendy, well-known and big-budget musicals. And most of our audiences pay for themselves, unlike many of their Beijing counterparts who have tickets sent to them."
Qian admits that the Shanghai Grand Theater has received tremendous criticism.

"Some said performing musicals at the Shanghai Grand Theater is kind of degrading," Qian says. "But musicals are more acceptable to modern audiences and the audience is our god."

Truly, it seems that a love of musicals has swept the city and raised the level of desire for this modern art form to fever pitch. Beginning in 2002, the Shanghai Conservatory of Music and the Shanghai Theater Academy have even introduced a new major in their courses for musicals despite the fact that China has few excellent original musicals or a loyal audience for them.

Since "Miss Saigon" cannot be imported due to its sensitive storyline, the fever for gigantic musicals in Shanghai will reach a final climax with this production of "Phantom" because of its huge budget, complicated sets and dazzling special effects.

"Next year we will shift our plan to bring in some new, smaller-budget works like 'Mamma Mia,' 'Mumbai Dreams' and 'Lion King' which are now under negotiation," says Qian.

He reveals that there is a plan to either renovate the Majestic Theater into a musical theater or to build a completely new one.

"We have just begun our journey on the road to producing our own musicals," says Qian. "We have to imitate this Western art form first, then create one that is our own. Importing comes first, then we will 'localize' the musicals.

"Several foreign companies over the past couple of years have discussed with me to create Chinese versions of these musicals. However, it's not easy since it requires a lot of work to re-create them. But these sit-down productions with Chinese actors can tour around China and present more performances. Our ultimate goal is to export outstanding original Chinese musicals to Broadway some day."

He adds that the theater has gained something more valuable than money in its collaborations with Western musical professionals.

Wu Zhihua, technical manager of the Shanghai Grand Theater, admits his fear when working on "Les Miserables."

"We were almost ignorant of musicals and there are many problems since we had different standards such as different voltages," says Wu. "'Phantom' is the most complicated of all, but we feel much better and more steady this time.

"I've learned from them that a performance is much more than just putting on a show - it's a project. They prepare a full range of blueprints, reports and schedules and strictly follow them. The production of 'Phantom' involved more than 10 blueprints and it's more like a large-scale engineering project."

That "Phantom" will be a triumph may be predictable because, as assistant director Rainer Fried explains: "It's exactly the same production as the one in London's West End and on Broadway. Nothing less."

Well, how about after "Phantom," after the (hopefully) fantastic climax? What will feed the growing appetite among Chinese for spectacular musicals in the future?
"These musical giants did introduce this art form to China but they cannot represent the full view of musicals," says Jin Fuzai, director of the musical department of the Shanghai Conservatory of Music. "Many small-budget musicals such as 'Mamma Mia' are very popular on Broadway. In addition, the Shanghai Grand Theater is built for opera and ballet - it's too big for musicals which require seating for audiences of 1,000 to 1,500 and need specialized technological facilities."

Jin introduces his 70 students to a study of musicals by getting them to put on excerpts from Broadway productions. The students will stage highlights from some well-known Western musicals in a concert to be presented on Christmas Eve at the Lyceum Theater.

"Today, we have neither a professional Chinese musical theater nor good original scripts," says Jin. "In the 1980s, there used to be some 20 original Chinese musicals but they eventually failed due to a lack of audience and professional casts to perform them."

Jin says his students will have the opportunity to put on 15 performances next year. In the drama venue of the Lyceum Theater on Christmas Eve, the shows will include one original creation adapted from a popular Chinese cartoon series.

"I estimate that in three to five years the making of original Chinese musicals will become mature and they will be culturally influential," he says. "Shanghai's open mind and cultural atmosphere are right for creating musicals. I hope the major we have introduced will educate more musical directors, producers and composers - as well as performers - in the future."

It seems we have good wishes for the art form of musicals and promises for the future. So let's hope that "The Phantom of the Opera" will bring to life the phantom of the Chinese musical.

"The Phantom of the Opera"
Date: December 18-March 12, 2005, 7:15pm
Address: 300 People's Ave
Tickets: 100-2,000 yuan
Tel: 6372-8701, 6372-8702

Phantom: Something apparently seen, heard, or sensed, but having no physical reality; a ghost or an apparition. - dictionary.com

The Phantom will soon appear in the flesh. It's been a long wait -- 17 years since the play's debut in London's West End -- but the Andrew Lloyd Webber musical is far from its expiry date.

Indeed, the timing is good, with this month's release of Phantom of the Opera - the Movie, the stage version is poised to capitalize on renewed popularity. See the musical, buy the movie, get the mask.

Webber's products, of course, are not unknown in Shanghai. Box office records indicate that more than 90,000 tickets were sold for Cats in 2003, and the twenty-one performances of Les Miserables earned a tidy RMB12 million back in 2001.
Still, British pop opera is not to everyone's taste and traditional Chinese stage productions have no reason to fear a British invasion. First, the best seats in the house sell for a steep RMB 800 - far beyond the budget of most. Second, local theatre patrons still find Western musicals a little hard to comprehend, not least because of the language barrier.
"They do not tally with Chinese people's tastes," says Huang Dingyu, director of the performance department at the Central Academy of Drama.

What Huang means is that the over-the-top sets, in-your-face theatrics and Hollywood-style production values go against the grain of Chinese aesthetics.
That said, we're not suggesting that the promoters will go hungry. The Phantom has enjoyed phenomenal success in 110 countries, and without doubt local audiences will turn out in large numbers. This is spectacle theatre after all and tough to resist.

The Shanghai production is directed by Harold Prince and stars Brad Little as the Phantom and Marni Raab as the heroine, Christine, who is "really looking forward to performing in Shanghai." Another 130 persons round out the cast and crew. Scheduled for a three-month run, the Phantom has more than ample time to make up for the long delay.
The Phantom of the Opera will be presented at Shanghai Grand Theatre from December 18 to March 5. Tickets RMB 100-800. Call 6372 8701 or 6372 8702 for tickets.